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Friday
Mar042011

Autumn 2011 forecast by Kevin Long

9000 litre tanks at bgo school

THE AUTUMN FORECAST In brief: Above-average rain and an early Autumn break.


Looking into Autumn, the lunar cycle has one more peak rain event still to come. It is most likely to occur just after the closest perigee new moon for this 18.6 year cycle, which occurs on 19th March. On the 2nd April the Earth has another close encounter with Saturn. Therefore I conclude there is a very high risk of another flood rain event close to the start of April.


During Winter, the monthly rain totals will trend down as “The Chinese Effect” becomes active again. The Spring ahead should be the most productive one for at least 15 years, although there will also be a very high risk of severe thunderstorms during late Spring and early Summer. The end result for 2011 will be above-average rain building to about 140% of average for Central Victoria. All G-MW reservoirs are likely to produce more floods downstream before the end of Spring.


I hope this information will assist you to plan for the changing seasons ahead.

 

 

Regards, Kevin Long

If you would like to read Kevin’s full report, please go here.

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