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Entries in Weather Reports (9)


2015 was the hottest year on record

Every month since February 1985 has been warmer than average, and 2015 is the 39th consecutive year with above-average annual temperatures in an uninterrupted run that began in the mid 1970s. Ten months in 2015 beat previous records for those months.

High temperatures broke the internet (literally); led to cancelled sporting events in Victoria and South Australia; and added to severe bushfire conditions in several states.




What does El Nino mean for us?

We have been hearing a bit about El Nino lately.  Have you ever wondered what it means?  and how it affects our weather here?
To keep it really simple, El Nino is part of a natural cycle of weather that affects the Pacific Ocean, specifically to do with the sea surface temperatures.  That warming and cooling of the ocean temperatures then has a follow on effect to us here in Australia.
Most Australian droughts have been associated with El Nino, although we don't necessarily get a drought each time El Nino occurs.
It usually means for us here in Australia, that we can have reduced rainfall, warmer temperatures, temperature extremes, increased frost risk, decreased snow depths, and increased fire danger in southeast Australia - our area!
Currently we are in the early stages of El Nino.  The Bureau of Meteorology have said that the current May to July outlook suggests that much of Australia will be wetter than average.  There is expected to be much more effect in the second half of the year.
Want to know more?  the Bureau of Meteorology has lots of great information about this -



Spring forecast for Central Victoria by Kevin Long

Kevin LongTHE SPRING FORECAST IN BRIEF: 85% average spring rain … a heightened risk of cold snaps …

I forecast only 85% of average Spring rainfall.  There is also a high risk of several lengthy warm dry periods during Spring.

A strong start to the thunderstorm season can be expected from early October onwards.  Given the present wet catchment conditions and the high risk of floods during late-Spring and early-Summer, it is very important that the water authorities maintain at least 6% empty space in all reservoirs to minimise the risk of flood damage.

Where possible I advise the farmers to make silage early in the harvest season to avoid the high risk of water damaged hay in late-Spring and early-Summer.

There is already 580mm in the Bendigo rain gauge for this year and I now expect to see well over 750mm in it by the end of this year. (330mm of that was dumped on us during January and February).

I hope this information will assist you to develop the best plans for the harvest season ahead. Regards, Kevin.

For the complete report, please visit Kevin's website at www.thelongview.com.au


Kevin Long's Predictions for Winter 2011 in Central Vic

Kevin Long has released his Winter Forecast for Central Victoria 2011.  It makes for interesting reading, as always.  

Kevin says that it has been "a unique and incredible wet 12 months we have just endured, the likes of which is unlikely to occur again for 297 years." 

Kevin predicts that this winter we will have below-average rains and above-average frosts.  He also says "  The recent short period of flood conditions cut off very sharply in mid-March, returning us to the dry conditions that dominated the last decade.  I forecast that below-average rainfall will persist throughout most of this decade. 

A rapid decline of the soil moisture can be expected during the rest of this year.  I forecast Central Victoria will average only 50% rainfall for the Winter and Spring seasons of this year. 

Kevin has lots of information about the weather, water resources and climate change on his website www.thelongview.com.au if you would like to learn more.


Autumn 2011 forecast by Kevin Long

9000 litre tanks at bgo school

THE AUTUMN FORECAST In brief: Above-average rain and an early Autumn break.

Looking into Autumn, the lunar cycle has one more peak rain event still to come. It is most likely to occur just after the closest perigee new moon for this 18.6 year cycle, which occurs on 19th March. On the 2nd April the Earth has another close encounter with Saturn. Therefore I conclude there is a very high risk of another flood rain event close to the start of April.

During Winter, the monthly rain totals will trend down as “The Chinese Effect” becomes active again. The Spring ahead should be the most productive one for at least 15 years, although there will also be a very high risk of severe thunderstorms during late Spring and early Summer. The end result for 2011 will be above-average rain building to about 140% of average for Central Victoria. All G-MW reservoirs are likely to produce more floods downstream before the end of Spring.

I hope this information will assist you to plan for the changing seasons ahead.



Regards, Kevin Long

If you would like to read Kevin’s full report, please go here.